Running max builds up in the order each source is published: METARs and specials, the 1:51 six-hour recap, then the 4:15 and 5:15 PM DSMs. A DSM max is a floor, not the settlement. History = past May–Sep days at this time of day and distance below the max; it knows nothing about today's weather. Market = the chance the ladder's mid prices give that temperature or higher.